It is perhaps the oldest “get rich” dream in real estate.
You see a listing for 50 acres of farmland north of Toronto. The price tag is high for a farm, but dirt cheap compared to developable land. The listing agent uses seductive phrases like “future potential,” “path of progress,” or “buy and hold opportunity.”
You look at a map. You see the rapid expansion of the GTA pushing outwards. You connect the dots: purchase this quiet farm in Markham, Stouffville, Newmarket, Barrie, or Innisfil today, wait a few years for the city to reach you, rezone it for residential subdivision, and retire on millions.
It sounds like a guaranteed win.
The reality? It is one of the fastest ways for an average investor to lock up their capital in “dead money” for decades.
If you are eyeing agricultural land in York Region or Simcoe County with dreams of subdivisions dancing in your head, you need a serious reality check before you sign the agreement of purchase and sale.
The Invisible Wall: It’s Not Just Up to the Local Mayor
The biggest misconception amateur land investors have is that rezoning is a local political game. They believe that if they can just convince the town council in Stouffville or Innisfil that new homes are needed, the zoning will change.
In Southern Ontario, this is fundamentally incorrect.
Municipalities like Markham, Stouffville, and Newmarket are not masters of their own destiny when it comes to expansion. They are governed by massive, overarching Provincial plans that dictate literally every square inch of land use.
If the land you are looking at falls under the Greenbelt Plan or the Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan (ORM), the answer to “Can I build a subdivision here?” is almost certainly a hard NO. These are provincial protections that local councils cannot override, even if they wanted to.
These protections are designed to be permanent. Betting on them being overturned is not an investment strategy; it is gambling against the government.
A Regional Breakdown of the Risks
While the general risks are the same, each area presents its own unique hurdles for the speculative land buyer.
Markham and Stouffville (York Region)
These two municipalities are ground zero for speculative land buying mistakes.
- The Reality: A massive percentage of the rural land here is doubly protected by the Greenbelt and the ORM.
- The Trap: Stouffville recently passed a new Official Plan that maps out growth for the next 25+ years. If the land isn’t already designated for future urban growth on today’s map, it is highly unlikely to change before 2050. The “boundary” is set firm.
Newmarket (York Region)
- The Reality: Newmarket is almost entirely “built out.” It has very little remaining agricultural land within its borders.
- The Trap: Any remaining undeveloped fringe land is likely tied up in complex environmental constraints or has already been banked by major developers decades ago. If it’s available on MLS, there is usually a reason the big players haven’t bought it.
Barrie and Innisfil (Simcoe County)
These areas are growing incredibly fast, leading to a frenzy of speculation.
- The Reality: While less constrained by the Greenbelt than York Region, they face the strict Lake Simcoe Protection Plan. The environmental engineering required to prove you won’t harm the watershed is prohibitively expensive and often impossible.
- The Trap: Innisfil is focusing growth intensely around specific hubs (like the future “Orbit” GO station area). They are generally resisting sprawling subdivisions on random farm fields far from infrastructure. Barrie is increasingly focused on intensification—building up within existing borders, not just out.
The Confusion Over “More Housing” News
You likely read the news about the Provincial government pushing municipalities to cut red tape and build more homes. This leads many investors to think it’s open season on farmland.
It is vital to understand the difference between “Gentle Density” and “Sprawl.”
When Stouffville or Barrie says they are making it easier to build, they usually mean allowing Additional Residential Units (ARUs)—garden suites, laneway homes, or basement apartments on existing properties. They do not mean allowing a 50-acre farm to be severed into 200 detached home lots.
You might be able to buy a farm and add a second small house for a relative. You will likely not be able to build a subdivision.
The Costs of Holding “Maybe”
Let’s say you ignore the warnings and buy the land anyway, hoping the laws change in 15 years. Are you prepared for the holding costs?
- Taxes: If you don’t actively farm the land (a business in itself), you may lose the agricultural tax rate, causing your property taxes to skyrocket.
- No Income: Raw land does not generate cash flow. Renting it out to a local farmer usually barely covers the taxes.
- The Consultant Money Pit: To even attempt a rezoning application, you will need planning consultants, environmental impact studies, traffic studies, and hydrogeological reports. You will spend tens of thousands of dollars just to be told “No” at the first meeting with the town planners.
The Final Word
Buying farmland for development is a game for multi-generational wealth funds and massive development corporations with 40-year time horizons and deep pockets for legal battles.
If you see a listing for agricultural land in Markham, Stouffville, Newmarket, Barrie, or Innisfil that claims to have “amazing future development potential,” ask yourself: Why hasn’t a professional developer bought it yet?
If you are thinking of buying Farm Land or if you have Land for Development please consider contacting directly. Allen Mayer, Broker 416.918.7979. text most welcome.